Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
